For a long time in sport people made decisions essentially entirely upon what their perceptions were either from themselves, or from other people they trusted. Experienced people brought up with the fundamentals of the game in question would make decisions based on their own thoughts, what they saw happening, and the traditional accepted view.
In the late seventies a man named Bill James started looking at baseball in a different way, he started evaluating the game objectively, through the methods of measurement and statistics, with the goal being to see what helped teams win rather than what people thought helped teams win. It took about twenty years before this approach was taken on by a Major League team, the Oakland A's, as a useful addition to their method of running their business. There was a noticeable improvement of the team in comparison to the resources the team had when this transition was made. This has been made famous by the book, and now the film, Moneyball.
Now, the majority of sports fans view this approach still as less useful than their own eyes and knowledge. A minority of sports fans have embraced this approach and in discussions will provide objective evidence for their opinions, with usually a vast amount of scoffing. However, in the enormously competitive world of professional sports almost every single team in the world now using statistics all the time when making decisions. this doesn't mean that statistics make all the decisions, just that they are a vital part in informing those who make those decisions.
One of the new statistics was something called Wins Over Replacement Player. Essentially what this means is an evaluation of the contribution a player makes (with a combination of offensive statistics and defensive statistics plugged into a formula) towards the team winning. it isn't a measure of whether the player hits the ball, or looks good, it is a measure of whether the team wins more or less, and roughly how much, when the player is playing compared to what you can get as a replacement. The replacement concept is not an average player, it is what is freely available, what you can just pick up.
Why am I talking about this sports statistic for a group of people who probably don't care much about sports, and almost certainly not about sporting statistics? It's because I want to bring across the concept of "Better Than Replacement Value" when making decisions. I see people all the time saying that the USA is crap, a politician is crap, this corporation is crap, my coworkers are crap, management are crap, my bank is crap. These are all value based judgments and so I think it useful to think crap compared with what? If you work in a big company there are going to be people you think are bad at their jobs. So, are they bad at their jobs? It depends what you compare them to. Are they more crap than Bill Gates or Paul Krugman, almost certainly. are they crap compared to a member of the Taliban? Almost certainly not. Does Houston suck? Yes compared with Tuscany, no when compared with Somalia.
So, how "good" something is depends on what it is compared against. Are you disappointed with Barak Obama? If so, you are probably disappointed because of the large difference between what he said he was going to do and what has happened. I want to change the way you think about how to evaluate the job he is doing, not necessarily change your opinion but how you go about making that decision. I want you to judge Obama against replacement value, that is evaluate his job against those who could have been President. On the Democratic side everyone but Hilary Clinton and Barak Obama had dropped out of the race because they knew they had no chance of winning. On the Republican side John McCain, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckerbee, Alan Keyes, and Ron Paul managed to get past January, but only Mitt Romney and Mike Huckerbee got enough delegates to really be considered viable candidates.
This means that the replacement values for Obama are Clinton, McCain, Huckerbee, and Mitt Romney. This means that you can either value the job Barak Obama has done against the job these other candidates would have done, or you can evaluate him against something that is not possible in the real world.
When buying a car do you make your decision based upon how the car matches up to a car you have made up in your head that you would like to own? Do you make a decision on whether you like your car or not based upon how it matches up with a Ferrari you cannot afford, or based upon how it does compared with a car you could actually buy.
When deciding whether you are disappointed or not with living in the USA under the present system it seems sensible to me to compare your conditions with other real possibilities. Would you be wealthier, safer, more content and healthier elsewhere? Would you be better off living under a theocracy like Saudi Arabia, a socialist country like Venezuela, a parliamentary system like the UK, or a different republic like Russia? If the answer is "yes" I strongly suggest organizing things so that you can move.
This does not mean that people should not be thinking of different and new ways of living. It doesn't mean that we can't strive to make the world a better place. This way of thinking simply evaluates things against reality, against the alternative rather than a fantasy. Work towards your best fantasy but only by acknowledging what is actually possible right now. The best now can only be achieved by choosing between possible nows.
Monday, October 10, 2011
Friday, October 7, 2011
On Christianity
I had attended many, many church services, sang hymns, been told the
well known stories of Jesus but I hadn't read the Bible. I think this is
actually very common. i assumed that the New Testament simply said what
are the dogma of Christianity, that Jesus plainly said that he was God,
part of a Trinity, and that if you were good, kind and humble you went
to Heaven after you died, and if you were naughty you went to Hell after
you died.
In order to converse reasonably intelligently on this forum I have since spent some time researching what the Bible actually says. This has been a real eye-opener. In my estimation Jesus never plainly says the things that I thought he said. All of these things are either made up after Jesus had been dead for some time (the Trinity, Heaven and Hell are after you are dead) or inferred from somewhat vague phrases (I am the way. Before Abraham I am. The Son of God (also used by recent predecessor Caesar Augustus)).
Here are some portions of the New Testament that I think are vital when considering what was Jesus and what was he teaching.
Matthew 3: 1-2 1 In those days John the Baptist came, preaching in the wilderness of Judea 2 and saying, “Repent, for the kingdom of heaven has come near.”
Mark 1:15 “The time has come,” he said. “The kingdom of God has come near. Repent and believe the good news!” (This is Jesus speaking).
Mark 13 2-4 2 “Do you see all these great buildings?” replied Jesus. “Not one stone here will be left on another; every one will be thrown down.” 3 As Jesus was sitting on the Mount of Olives opposite the temple, Peter, James, John and Andrew asked him privately, 4 “Tell us, when will these things happen? And what will be the sign that they are all about to be fulfilled?”
Mark 13:30 I tell you the truth, this generation will certainly not pass away until all these things have happened.
Mathew 16: 28 - "Assuredly, I say to you, there are some standing here who shall not taste death till they see the Son of Man coming in His kingdom".
Luke 17:19-21 - When he was asked by the Pharisees when the Kingdom of God would come, He answered them and said, "The Kingdom of God does not come with observation, nor will they say, 'See here!' or 'See there!' For indeed the Kingdom of God is within you."
Matthew 5 17-18 17“Do not think that I have come to abolish the Law or the Prophets; I have not come to abolish them but to fulfill them. 18I tell you the truth, until heaven and earth disappear, not the smallest letter, not the least stroke of a pen, will by any means disappear from the Law until everything is accomplished.
Luke 24 4-7 4 While they were wondering about this, suddenly two men in clothes that gleamed like lightning stood beside them. 5 In their fright the women bowed down with their faces to the ground, but the men said to them, “Why do you look for the living among the dead? 6 He is not here; he has risen! Remember how he told you, while he was still with you in Galilee: 7 `The Son of Man must be delivered into the hands of sinful men, be crucified and on the third day be raised again.’”
Luke 18:19 "Why do you call me good?" Jesus answered. "No one is good--except God alone.
Mark 15 34 And at three in the afternoon Jesus cried out in a loud voice, “Eloi, Eloi, lema sabachthani?” (which means “My God, my God, why have you forsaken me?”).
Luke 24:39 - See my hands and my feet, that it is I myself: handle me,and see; for a spirit hath not flesh and bones, as ye behold me having.
So from these passages I get that Jesus was a faithful Jew who believed that the Kingdom of Heaven was on the Earth, before death, within people, and about to happen. He believed in a time of great tribulation including the destruction of the Temple within the same generation in which all his prophecies would come true. He said he was not God. When crucified he was forlorn because his predictions had not come true and he was simply dying before his prophecies had come true. After crucifixion he was living and not a spirit and still had the wounds of crucifixion.
The important thing for me is that these are not things said about Jesus or John the Baptist but rather direct quotes from them. The inferences I make from these quotes are simple and plain and do not require vast amounts of inference and metaphor. In the face of these quotes (which I am astonished have not been removed from the Bible) I find myself frankly amazed that Christian dogma is what it is.
I believe Jesus (and John the Baptist) believed he was an apocalyptic Jewish preacher in a nation that had turned away from the commandments of Jewish Law. As a result he believed that an apocalypse like Noah's flood was about to happen. He was crucified before this happened, despaired, survived the crucifixion and fled.
Matthew 24 36-39 "As the days of Noah were, so also will the coming of the Son of Man be. For as in the days before the flood, they were eating and drinking, marrying and giving in marriage, until the day that Noah entered the ark, and did not know until the flood came and took them all away, so also will the coming of the Son of Man be."
In order to converse reasonably intelligently on this forum I have since spent some time researching what the Bible actually says. This has been a real eye-opener. In my estimation Jesus never plainly says the things that I thought he said. All of these things are either made up after Jesus had been dead for some time (the Trinity, Heaven and Hell are after you are dead) or inferred from somewhat vague phrases (I am the way. Before Abraham I am. The Son of God (also used by recent predecessor Caesar Augustus)).
Here are some portions of the New Testament that I think are vital when considering what was Jesus and what was he teaching.
Matthew 3: 1-2 1 In those days John the Baptist came, preaching in the wilderness of Judea 2 and saying, “Repent, for the kingdom of heaven has come near.”
Mark 1:15 “The time has come,” he said. “The kingdom of God has come near. Repent and believe the good news!” (This is Jesus speaking).
Mark 13 2-4 2 “Do you see all these great buildings?” replied Jesus. “Not one stone here will be left on another; every one will be thrown down.” 3 As Jesus was sitting on the Mount of Olives opposite the temple, Peter, James, John and Andrew asked him privately, 4 “Tell us, when will these things happen? And what will be the sign that they are all about to be fulfilled?”
Mark 13:30 I tell you the truth, this generation will certainly not pass away until all these things have happened.
Mathew 16: 28 - "Assuredly, I say to you, there are some standing here who shall not taste death till they see the Son of Man coming in His kingdom".
Luke 17:19-21 - When he was asked by the Pharisees when the Kingdom of God would come, He answered them and said, "The Kingdom of God does not come with observation, nor will they say, 'See here!' or 'See there!' For indeed the Kingdom of God is within you."
Matthew 5 17-18 17“Do not think that I have come to abolish the Law or the Prophets; I have not come to abolish them but to fulfill them. 18I tell you the truth, until heaven and earth disappear, not the smallest letter, not the least stroke of a pen, will by any means disappear from the Law until everything is accomplished.
Luke 24 4-7 4 While they were wondering about this, suddenly two men in clothes that gleamed like lightning stood beside them. 5 In their fright the women bowed down with their faces to the ground, but the men said to them, “Why do you look for the living among the dead? 6 He is not here; he has risen! Remember how he told you, while he was still with you in Galilee: 7 `The Son of Man must be delivered into the hands of sinful men, be crucified and on the third day be raised again.’”
Luke 18:19 "Why do you call me good?" Jesus answered. "No one is good--except God alone.
Mark 15 34 And at three in the afternoon Jesus cried out in a loud voice, “Eloi, Eloi, lema sabachthani?” (which means “My God, my God, why have you forsaken me?”).
Luke 24:39 - See my hands and my feet, that it is I myself: handle me,and see; for a spirit hath not flesh and bones, as ye behold me having.
So from these passages I get that Jesus was a faithful Jew who believed that the Kingdom of Heaven was on the Earth, before death, within people, and about to happen. He believed in a time of great tribulation including the destruction of the Temple within the same generation in which all his prophecies would come true. He said he was not God. When crucified he was forlorn because his predictions had not come true and he was simply dying before his prophecies had come true. After crucifixion he was living and not a spirit and still had the wounds of crucifixion.
The important thing for me is that these are not things said about Jesus or John the Baptist but rather direct quotes from them. The inferences I make from these quotes are simple and plain and do not require vast amounts of inference and metaphor. In the face of these quotes (which I am astonished have not been removed from the Bible) I find myself frankly amazed that Christian dogma is what it is.
I believe Jesus (and John the Baptist) believed he was an apocalyptic Jewish preacher in a nation that had turned away from the commandments of Jewish Law. As a result he believed that an apocalypse like Noah's flood was about to happen. He was crucified before this happened, despaired, survived the crucifixion and fled.
Matthew 24 36-39 "As the days of Noah were, so also will the coming of the Son of Man be. For as in the days before the flood, they were eating and drinking, marrying and giving in marriage, until the day that Noah entered the ark, and did not know until the flood came and took them all away, so also will the coming of the Son of Man be."
Thursday, October 6, 2011
Advice for Putting Music in Children's Lives
This is mostly directed at the Emilys but I think works for anyone.
Music is a wonderful thing, and being able to do a wonderful thing is a wonderful thing. Learning how to do things is enormously more easy for children, their brains are growing and teaching is basically altering the growth of brains so that certain tasks are easier. My only introduction to music growing up were the three albums my parents owned and about a month of trying to play a very cheap recorder in school.
At the age of thirty I was introduced to playing music again, and have worked to be able to play it now for eleven years. i think in those eleven years I have learned as much as I would have in two years as a child, and a foundation of childhood skill would mean that all my learning of music in the future would be much easier.
I don't want to suggest that all children should learn music, just like I don't think all children should be forced to play sports, or made to paint. I do think all children should be introduced to these things to see if they like them, because they can all add great depths of richness to a life.
The first piece of advice I have is to get the right sort of instrument. If your child likes to sing this is the greatest instrument that a person can have, but learning an instrument will help them to sing and result in a more full musical experience. The right sort of instrument is a quality instrument that a child can play. Too often parents buy a full-size cheap "beginners" guitar because they don't want to waste their money if their child gives up after a while. This is a terrible choice. A cheap instrument will sound terrible if almost anyone plays it, and much worse for a beginner.
A a full size guitar is too big for a child to operate, my hands are really too small for a guitar, and a child will have difficulty with the long neck. The guitar also requires significant strength in the fingers and callouses on the tips of the fingers that are earned through painful practice. A reduced size quality instrument will be easier to play and will provide vastly more encouragement because of the more beautiful sounds produced. Find your local used music shop, set a budget, and consult with the staff. You'll be hard pressed to find someone working in such an establishment who will cheat a child out of the opportunity to play the best instrument for them possible.
I really recommend starting with an electronic keyboard, you can get new ones for around $100. These have numerous advantages, the first being that they always make the right tone, the second that they are easily portable, the third that they require no physical strength or endurance to play, and the fourth is that the keyboard is by far the most intuitive way to learn music theory. The keyboard is laid out as music theory. Most keyboards have programmed songs in them and a vast array of different sounds. I recommend smashing these optionsto smithereens if possible for your own sanity and the learning of music. People do the most efficient thing and having the machine play songs for you or make lots of cool noises is the most efficient way to "make music" for a child of any age.
The second piece of advice I would give is to get a teacher early, and get one that teaches with tunes rather than theory and scales at first. Only when the child wishes to get better should these other approaches be introduced. It is fun to play songs but not fun to practice technique. You can make a child become great at an instrument, but if they associate music with drudgery they will quit as soon as they have the power to do so. It is not necessary to have a music teacher for your child at all times during their childhood for the child to become very good at music.
My third piece of advice is to let the child be the motivating force. It is unlikely that your child will make a living playing music or require competence at music to survive the adult world. Music is not a requirement but a beautifully enriching luxury. Music should be played for fun, not because a parent wishes it to be played.
My fourth piece of advice is to encourage performance. There is nothing that will make music more fun than finishing a song and hearing people clap and cheer. From a parent clapping for a pre-school child singing to a crowd cheering ten year olds in a rock band at the local coffee house, it all makes it more wonderful.
My fifth piece of advice is to find some fun group activity for child musicians to play together. Music at its best is a collaborative activity, and understanding this as early as possible can only be good. One of the greatest examples I have seen is The Black Peppercorns who started out of a wonderful project called The Rock and Roll Camp for Girls.
Music is a wonderful thing, and being able to do a wonderful thing is a wonderful thing. Learning how to do things is enormously more easy for children, their brains are growing and teaching is basically altering the growth of brains so that certain tasks are easier. My only introduction to music growing up were the three albums my parents owned and about a month of trying to play a very cheap recorder in school.
At the age of thirty I was introduced to playing music again, and have worked to be able to play it now for eleven years. i think in those eleven years I have learned as much as I would have in two years as a child, and a foundation of childhood skill would mean that all my learning of music in the future would be much easier.
I don't want to suggest that all children should learn music, just like I don't think all children should be forced to play sports, or made to paint. I do think all children should be introduced to these things to see if they like them, because they can all add great depths of richness to a life.
The first piece of advice I have is to get the right sort of instrument. If your child likes to sing this is the greatest instrument that a person can have, but learning an instrument will help them to sing and result in a more full musical experience. The right sort of instrument is a quality instrument that a child can play. Too often parents buy a full-size cheap "beginners" guitar because they don't want to waste their money if their child gives up after a while. This is a terrible choice. A cheap instrument will sound terrible if almost anyone plays it, and much worse for a beginner.
A a full size guitar is too big for a child to operate, my hands are really too small for a guitar, and a child will have difficulty with the long neck. The guitar also requires significant strength in the fingers and callouses on the tips of the fingers that are earned through painful practice. A reduced size quality instrument will be easier to play and will provide vastly more encouragement because of the more beautiful sounds produced. Find your local used music shop, set a budget, and consult with the staff. You'll be hard pressed to find someone working in such an establishment who will cheat a child out of the opportunity to play the best instrument for them possible.
I really recommend starting with an electronic keyboard, you can get new ones for around $100. These have numerous advantages, the first being that they always make the right tone, the second that they are easily portable, the third that they require no physical strength or endurance to play, and the fourth is that the keyboard is by far the most intuitive way to learn music theory. The keyboard is laid out as music theory. Most keyboards have programmed songs in them and a vast array of different sounds. I recommend smashing these optionsto smithereens if possible for your own sanity and the learning of music. People do the most efficient thing and having the machine play songs for you or make lots of cool noises is the most efficient way to "make music" for a child of any age.
The second piece of advice I would give is to get a teacher early, and get one that teaches with tunes rather than theory and scales at first. Only when the child wishes to get better should these other approaches be introduced. It is fun to play songs but not fun to practice technique. You can make a child become great at an instrument, but if they associate music with drudgery they will quit as soon as they have the power to do so. It is not necessary to have a music teacher for your child at all times during their childhood for the child to become very good at music.
My third piece of advice is to let the child be the motivating force. It is unlikely that your child will make a living playing music or require competence at music to survive the adult world. Music is not a requirement but a beautifully enriching luxury. Music should be played for fun, not because a parent wishes it to be played.
My fourth piece of advice is to encourage performance. There is nothing that will make music more fun than finishing a song and hearing people clap and cheer. From a parent clapping for a pre-school child singing to a crowd cheering ten year olds in a rock band at the local coffee house, it all makes it more wonderful.
My fifth piece of advice is to find some fun group activity for child musicians to play together. Music at its best is a collaborative activity, and understanding this as early as possible can only be good. One of the greatest examples I have seen is The Black Peppercorns who started out of a wonderful project called The Rock and Roll Camp for Girls.
Wednesday, October 5, 2011
Psychic Activation Energy
There is a concept in chemistry called "Activation Energy." Basically what this means is that for a chemical reaction (like burning wood) to take place a certain amount of energy has to be put into the system (the spark, or flame from a match). With an exothermic reaction (something that gives off energy, like the wood fire) once the activation energy has started the reaction, the reaction then provides enough energy for the stuff around it to also react. So a spark lights a fire, and the heat from that fire starts the burning of the wood around it, and so on until all the wood is used up. With a exothermic reaction the state after the reaction has less energy. Burned wood has given off the energy from the fire, and therefore needs more energy to burn (like charcoal) or simply won't burn (like ash).
I want you now to compare the different levels of energy to the ease of a person's life. Our lives have a certain amount of difficulty, which is analogous to the amount of energy in wood. Now, this can be altered by the environment (put a piece of wood on Mount Everest and the cold and the reduced pressure makes it harder to burn, you need more activation energy). If you get sick then everything is a bit harder. You can't do much about this.
However, most of us can think of ways to reduce how difficult our lives could be. Do you get anxious about things that you can't change? Would your life be easier if you had a little more education? Would your life be easier if you were in better shape? Would things be easier if you were a little more humble and apologised to people you have hurt with your opinions? These are analogous to the reduced energy state after a chemical reaction, the wood after it has been burnt.
Isn't it often very difficult to get to that lower difficulty state? Do you find you can't stop worrying? Do you think of all the difficulties with going to school, the cost and the time? Do you find it difficult to start exercising (or do it on consecutive days)? Do you find it painfully difficult to suck it up and humble yourself before someone else, even though you know you are right? This difficulty is the activation energy, the hurdle you need to get over until you can get to the new state.
This activation energy can come in different forms, and over different amounts of time. As I have said before, real change comes from changing one's habits. What changes our habits are the will to think about changing them, the knowledge about how to change them, the courage to overcome our fears, and the effort to make it happen. It is all very well to know that you would be happier if you stopped worrying about things you can't change, but this does nothing to help you if you don't find out how to do it, don't over come the fear of changing yourself or appearing silly, and without actually applying your knowledge in a consistent and practical manner.
We have all done it. Complained about our lives and then complained that what it would take to change the situation is too hard, and then gone back to complaining about our lives again. We have all also thought of big plans that we could do, who we could be, what we could achieve, and then done none of these things because of the effort involved. The thing is, with almost all these situations, the overall effort involved is less if you actually do the things. Just like a fire just needs a spark to get it going, psychic activation energy can get you to a place where your life is truly easier. Generally it is worth the effort.
This post is dedicated to my sister Emily, who has just made the effort, and as a result made me proud.
I want you now to compare the different levels of energy to the ease of a person's life. Our lives have a certain amount of difficulty, which is analogous to the amount of energy in wood. Now, this can be altered by the environment (put a piece of wood on Mount Everest and the cold and the reduced pressure makes it harder to burn, you need more activation energy). If you get sick then everything is a bit harder. You can't do much about this.
However, most of us can think of ways to reduce how difficult our lives could be. Do you get anxious about things that you can't change? Would your life be easier if you had a little more education? Would your life be easier if you were in better shape? Would things be easier if you were a little more humble and apologised to people you have hurt with your opinions? These are analogous to the reduced energy state after a chemical reaction, the wood after it has been burnt.
Isn't it often very difficult to get to that lower difficulty state? Do you find you can't stop worrying? Do you think of all the difficulties with going to school, the cost and the time? Do you find it difficult to start exercising (or do it on consecutive days)? Do you find it painfully difficult to suck it up and humble yourself before someone else, even though you know you are right? This difficulty is the activation energy, the hurdle you need to get over until you can get to the new state.
This activation energy can come in different forms, and over different amounts of time. As I have said before, real change comes from changing one's habits. What changes our habits are the will to think about changing them, the knowledge about how to change them, the courage to overcome our fears, and the effort to make it happen. It is all very well to know that you would be happier if you stopped worrying about things you can't change, but this does nothing to help you if you don't find out how to do it, don't over come the fear of changing yourself or appearing silly, and without actually applying your knowledge in a consistent and practical manner.
We have all done it. Complained about our lives and then complained that what it would take to change the situation is too hard, and then gone back to complaining about our lives again. We have all also thought of big plans that we could do, who we could be, what we could achieve, and then done none of these things because of the effort involved. The thing is, with almost all these situations, the overall effort involved is less if you actually do the things. Just like a fire just needs a spark to get it going, psychic activation energy can get you to a place where your life is truly easier. Generally it is worth the effort.
This post is dedicated to my sister Emily, who has just made the effort, and as a result made me proud.
Tuesday, October 4, 2011
Public Demonstrations
At the moment, to the delight of many of my friends, there is a public movement to occupy Wall Street in New York. Wall Street is of course the home of corporate America, and the demonstration is intended to express public discontent with the behavior and power of large corporations, and urges the government to change their priorities from corporations to people. I think it is a laudable goal to have government act in the interests of individual people, and I think very few people would argue with that statement.
This is essentially the Left's version of the Tea Party, which was a public demonstration to express disapproval of the government, and urging power over individual lives to be put in the hands of private entities, in particular individual people. Over time the Tea Party morphed into a political movement, organized itself into an active part of the government, voted in candidates and has had a real effect on the actions of the government. The Tea Party equates government action in general with acting against the interests of individual people.
I was a part of the largest global public demonstration of all time in advance of the Iraq War. This demonstration was enormous, organized, deeply felt and reported around the world. It had exactly zero effect on whether the war happened or not. However, in almost every single country in the world that participated in the war, other than the USA, the politicians who had been responsible for joining the war where voted out of office. When it came to actual politics, voting for candidates, the politicians were punished for their actions. This did not happen in the USA because the majority of Americans were in favor of the war.
The demonstrations against the Vietnam War had no effect. The demonstrations against corporate power in Seattle had no effect. Demonstrations in, and of themselves have no effect. This is exactly how it should be in a representative democracy. In such a system the point at which the individual has a say in their government is in the voting booth. If there is a massive demonstration against the actions of the government but the government is voted back into power then the majority of the country does not agree with the demonstration. The loudest do not over-rule the majority, and we should be very pleased about this.
So, these demonstrations will have no effect unless a public display becomes a political movement that elects people with similar views to the demonstration. This will only happen if the demonstrations become politically organized and puts forward candidates that can get elected. Such candidates can only be elected in places where the majority of voters agree with the thrust of the arguments of the demonstration. This means that at some point there need to be concrete, agreed opinions among a significant portion of the Left. This is more difficult for the Left then the Right since there is a greater diversity of opinion among the Left.
Furthermore, this political group has to be large enough in office, and committed enough while in office, to make a difference to policy. The Tea Party was large enough, and committed enough to refuse to vote for more mainstream Republican policies even at the expense of having Democratic policies be instituted. A "People's Liberal Movement" would need to elect something like fifty representatives and a couple of senators to really make any difference. This group would also have to risk the passing of right wing law rather than moderate, middle ground law in order for their opinions to have teeth.
However, the model of the Tea Party is instructive on what happens when such a movement out of the mainstream gets power. The Tea Party had its highest approval ratings right before the last election, at around 37%. After its actions in government it now has its lowest approval ratings ever at around 28%. It has never really achieved a level at which more people approved than disapproved, but now over half the country disapprove of them, worse than Obama, the President who has only been in office with the economy in the tank.
I would guess that the majority of Americans do not approve of the Wall Street protesters, although there would be some commonality among some concerns with many Americans (the rich getting richer while we get poorer being the main one). Without political power this movement will be pointless, possibly detrimental to the advance of liberal ideology. While in office there is a good chance that the opinion of Americans will turn against them.
In US politics what happens is determined by the Middle. Over time the Middle has moved consistently to the Left, at least on social issues. This is still going on. The Left is winning, but only as it manages to convince the Middle, and this happens generally by influencing the young. This Wall Street demonstration will not sweep across America and change things forever. It's greatest hope is to elect some politicians who can influence policy, and change the minds of some people in the Middle, edging policy to the Left. This can only be done over the long term by appearing to the general public as reasonable people. The more extreme the public movement the less effective it will be.
This is essentially the Left's version of the Tea Party, which was a public demonstration to express disapproval of the government, and urging power over individual lives to be put in the hands of private entities, in particular individual people. Over time the Tea Party morphed into a political movement, organized itself into an active part of the government, voted in candidates and has had a real effect on the actions of the government. The Tea Party equates government action in general with acting against the interests of individual people.
I was a part of the largest global public demonstration of all time in advance of the Iraq War. This demonstration was enormous, organized, deeply felt and reported around the world. It had exactly zero effect on whether the war happened or not. However, in almost every single country in the world that participated in the war, other than the USA, the politicians who had been responsible for joining the war where voted out of office. When it came to actual politics, voting for candidates, the politicians were punished for their actions. This did not happen in the USA because the majority of Americans were in favor of the war.
The demonstrations against the Vietnam War had no effect. The demonstrations against corporate power in Seattle had no effect. Demonstrations in, and of themselves have no effect. This is exactly how it should be in a representative democracy. In such a system the point at which the individual has a say in their government is in the voting booth. If there is a massive demonstration against the actions of the government but the government is voted back into power then the majority of the country does not agree with the demonstration. The loudest do not over-rule the majority, and we should be very pleased about this.
So, these demonstrations will have no effect unless a public display becomes a political movement that elects people with similar views to the demonstration. This will only happen if the demonstrations become politically organized and puts forward candidates that can get elected. Such candidates can only be elected in places where the majority of voters agree with the thrust of the arguments of the demonstration. This means that at some point there need to be concrete, agreed opinions among a significant portion of the Left. This is more difficult for the Left then the Right since there is a greater diversity of opinion among the Left.
Furthermore, this political group has to be large enough in office, and committed enough while in office, to make a difference to policy. The Tea Party was large enough, and committed enough to refuse to vote for more mainstream Republican policies even at the expense of having Democratic policies be instituted. A "People's Liberal Movement" would need to elect something like fifty representatives and a couple of senators to really make any difference. This group would also have to risk the passing of right wing law rather than moderate, middle ground law in order for their opinions to have teeth.
However, the model of the Tea Party is instructive on what happens when such a movement out of the mainstream gets power. The Tea Party had its highest approval ratings right before the last election, at around 37%. After its actions in government it now has its lowest approval ratings ever at around 28%. It has never really achieved a level at which more people approved than disapproved, but now over half the country disapprove of them, worse than Obama, the President who has only been in office with the economy in the tank.
I would guess that the majority of Americans do not approve of the Wall Street protesters, although there would be some commonality among some concerns with many Americans (the rich getting richer while we get poorer being the main one). Without political power this movement will be pointless, possibly detrimental to the advance of liberal ideology. While in office there is a good chance that the opinion of Americans will turn against them.
In US politics what happens is determined by the Middle. Over time the Middle has moved consistently to the Left, at least on social issues. This is still going on. The Left is winning, but only as it manages to convince the Middle, and this happens generally by influencing the young. This Wall Street demonstration will not sweep across America and change things forever. It's greatest hope is to elect some politicians who can influence policy, and change the minds of some people in the Middle, edging policy to the Left. This can only be done over the long term by appearing to the general public as reasonable people. The more extreme the public movement the less effective it will be.
Wednesday, September 28, 2011
Book Report II
While in Portland I had a discussion with my friend Dade. He's the guy that comments on this blog. Towards the end of that discussion he pressed upon me, despite my protestations, a large and heavy hardback book for me to carry with me back to Texas. This book is entitled The Thousand Lives of Jacob van Zoet written by David Mitchell. As with the last book given to me, I feel a responsibility to say what I think and feel about the book.
I will start with the writing style, which, for a work of literature rather than pulp, is generally forthright and straight forward. The writing is more about what happens than an ostentatious display of writing prowess. The descriptions are excellent, but brief and always for the purpose of adding to the story. There is a fair amount of dialogue throughout the book and it feels entirely natural, with each person seeming like an actual individual person rather than a piece of the author. Still, the writing has a depth of intelligence that is subtle enough that you often only notice it some time later in the book when the plot drops enough clues to put everything before it in a different light. In contrast to Tinkers, the writing is about a story and the characters within that story.
That story starts with a young Dutch clerk landing on a trading enclave in Japan at the very end of the 18th century. He is there to make an adequate fortune to return to the Netherlands to marry his sweetheart, to be achieved through a five year position for the Dutch East India Company. The plot unfolds from there through the combination of fate, and the steady removal of layers of ignorance. What was clearly so at the beginning becomes increasingly not so throughout the book. I will say nothing more of the plot since the book relies on this progression of fate and understanding for its effect. Suffice it to say the book is thoroughly researched and the story is excellent, far from cliched, subtle, and excellently written.
I can, however, put forward what I feel are the themes of the book. The first, and most obvious, theme is of aliens living within the constraints of particular societies. The Dutch trading post's dimensions are measured in yards rather than miles, and its inhabitants are forbidden from leaving it for the mainland of Japan. In addition all communication with the Japanese is through a very small group of officials, students and interpreters and all under strict Japanese law. Even the practice of Christianity is forbidden. This idea of constraint is repeated in a number of situations throughout the book, within the Japanese family, profession, caste and religion. This constraint is highlighted not only by the vagaries of fate, but also by the main characters who are all educated and seemingly reasonable people.
The second theme is an examination of honor. What is honor, and does it do us any good? Is it better to suffer for your honor or to bend the rules a little for your (and others) betterment? Are honorable actions always the right thing to do? Or even usually the right thing to do? Are people honorable? Is it possible to be honorable within the obscure complexity of humanity? What happens when the different concepts of honor inherent in different cultures come into conflict? As someone who has always despised the idea that honor is more important than people, I found this theme both fascinating and somewhat painful.
This is a very worthy book, one that I think all of you should purchase and read. It has fluid and excellent writing, a fantastic plot unveiled with patient skill, rich characterization, and thorough research that leads to a solid grounding in space and time. For its type I can only think of one "novel" (stretching to twenty one volumes) that I have read that I feel is superior, that being the Aubrey - Maturin series by Patrick O'Brian. Since that work has been called "the greatest historical novel ever written" and is among the candidates for greatest novel ever written, this is far from any suggestion of denigration for Mr. Mitchell's work.
I will start with the writing style, which, for a work of literature rather than pulp, is generally forthright and straight forward. The writing is more about what happens than an ostentatious display of writing prowess. The descriptions are excellent, but brief and always for the purpose of adding to the story. There is a fair amount of dialogue throughout the book and it feels entirely natural, with each person seeming like an actual individual person rather than a piece of the author. Still, the writing has a depth of intelligence that is subtle enough that you often only notice it some time later in the book when the plot drops enough clues to put everything before it in a different light. In contrast to Tinkers, the writing is about a story and the characters within that story.
That story starts with a young Dutch clerk landing on a trading enclave in Japan at the very end of the 18th century. He is there to make an adequate fortune to return to the Netherlands to marry his sweetheart, to be achieved through a five year position for the Dutch East India Company. The plot unfolds from there through the combination of fate, and the steady removal of layers of ignorance. What was clearly so at the beginning becomes increasingly not so throughout the book. I will say nothing more of the plot since the book relies on this progression of fate and understanding for its effect. Suffice it to say the book is thoroughly researched and the story is excellent, far from cliched, subtle, and excellently written.
I can, however, put forward what I feel are the themes of the book. The first, and most obvious, theme is of aliens living within the constraints of particular societies. The Dutch trading post's dimensions are measured in yards rather than miles, and its inhabitants are forbidden from leaving it for the mainland of Japan. In addition all communication with the Japanese is through a very small group of officials, students and interpreters and all under strict Japanese law. Even the practice of Christianity is forbidden. This idea of constraint is repeated in a number of situations throughout the book, within the Japanese family, profession, caste and religion. This constraint is highlighted not only by the vagaries of fate, but also by the main characters who are all educated and seemingly reasonable people.
The second theme is an examination of honor. What is honor, and does it do us any good? Is it better to suffer for your honor or to bend the rules a little for your (and others) betterment? Are honorable actions always the right thing to do? Or even usually the right thing to do? Are people honorable? Is it possible to be honorable within the obscure complexity of humanity? What happens when the different concepts of honor inherent in different cultures come into conflict? As someone who has always despised the idea that honor is more important than people, I found this theme both fascinating and somewhat painful.
This is a very worthy book, one that I think all of you should purchase and read. It has fluid and excellent writing, a fantastic plot unveiled with patient skill, rich characterization, and thorough research that leads to a solid grounding in space and time. For its type I can only think of one "novel" (stretching to twenty one volumes) that I have read that I feel is superior, that being the Aubrey - Maturin series by Patrick O'Brian. Since that work has been called "the greatest historical novel ever written" and is among the candidates for greatest novel ever written, this is far from any suggestion of denigration for Mr. Mitchell's work.
Tuesday, September 27, 2011
The Road Goes Ever On
- The Road goes ever on and on
- Down from the door where it began.
- Now far ahead the Road has gone,
- And I must follow, if I can,
- Pursuing it with weary feet,
- Until it joins some larger way,
- Where many paths and errands meet.
- And whither then? I cannot say.
- - J.R.R. Tolkien
- A short while ago I wrote that I didn't expect to write very much more on this blog. I am now happy that I was so equivocal since to anyone who has been paying attention I have been writing quite a lot recently. Why is this, you may (but probably won't) ask?
- The reason is essentially that the circumstances of my own mind have changed from then to now. At that time I wrote:
In translation, I couldn't think of anything new and interesting to say other than my own difficulties, and thought nobody cared about that. If anyone cannot work out the name for this type of mindset I think they should read this, it's important. Since then I have become able to think of things that I find interesting, and have come to the conclusion that either some people do care what I say and think, or that I want to write down my ideas anyway. This is analogous to playing music. There are times that without noticeable improvement and the chance to perform I cannot find the point in playing music. There are other times where I enjoy singing and playing for myself.
What has been the difference? The difference has been that I have gone to see a psychiatrist. This psychiatrist has been sympathetic enough to listen me, agree with my self-diagnosis of rapid cycling bipolar 2 disorder and then prescribe for me a medication called Lamictal. I have been taking this for about three months now and my total symptoms during this time are eight days of minor "down" (tired and a bit sad for a day or so) and one day of minor "up" (talking more, more energy). So, on about one day in ten I have some minor symptoms, and this at the beginning of treatment. Side effects are a decrease in the effects of caffeine and about an hour less need for sleep. That's it.
What this really means for me are two-fold: first is the most important portion that a vast amount of personal misery has been lifted from me, second is that my mood is far more consistent. The first is self-evidently good and has led me to having ideas, self-assurance, etc. The second has more subtle effects. For quite some time now I have been thinking about what I could do if I could only maintain motivation consistently. Well, with a consistent mood my levels of motivation are consistent. I can start projects with some confidence that I will be able to continue with the project for some time, days, weeks, even months. As a result I have started a few projects. I am now "inspired?" frequently to write down my thoughts. I have started studying Spanish daily with the Rosetta Stone program, previously purchased two years ago and used for a total of four days previously. I play my mandolin almost daily. I exercise almost daily, have reduced my food intake and drink less. The house is looking better too.
This doesn't mean that my motivation for any activity has increased particularly. I still find exercise hard work, studying Spanish can be very frustrating, the rewards and trials of playing the mandolin are unchanged, and I like to eat and drink as much as I have before. Chores are unfailingly chores. The difference is that I have the energy each day to do what I did the day before. It is the consistency of effort towards a goal that is different. Our efforts usually fail because we don't consistently apply the effort. If you stop doing something for a week, it probably means you will simply stop doing it. If you can do something, even badly, for fifteen minutes a day you will improve.
There is a hypothesis called the 10,000 hour rule. Basically it means that for someone to master something, that is to become truly world class, you must practice that skill for 10,000 hours. For an hour a day that means over 27 years of practice. For eight hours a day it means three and a half years. The Cariaga rule requires a lifetime of 108 years of practice. I am frequently surprised that people are often astonished at my ability to converse with strangers with a multiplicity of problems and help them almost immediately. My surprise is that other people are so bad at understanding themselves and other people. However, I have spent over twenty years of my life working at this skill, a thousand weeks. It is therefore not surprising that I am good at this.
I don't expect to be world class at any of my hobbies but the ability to give consistent effort means that my chances of getting better and perhaps becoming good at something have dramatically improved.
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