Thursday, November 17, 2011

Experiment.

I hear quite often the idea that this generation is the first one in America's history to be worse off than their parents' generation.  Sometimes this is a prediction, or a fear that this will be so, and sometimes just a statement of fact.  In what I hope is the spirit of scientific exploration I offer to those who may think this is true the following experiment.

Average age for first time mothers is now 25.  So generations are about 25 years apart at the moment.  So let's look at incomes over the last 25 years.  it is very difficult to find the exact data that would be most useful, but I have found this chart.


I'm sorry it's a bit small, and it is broken off at both ends.  Here's a bigger picture.  However, I have seen data at both ends and incomes for the bottom four quartiles have ended up in a similar place to where they were in 2004, perhaps one or two percent lower, and 1986 numbers are a little lower than 1989, so it should even out.  This chart shows inflation adjusted income by quintile.  This is the closest method I can think of to comparing what you personally would make in 1986 to what you make now.  You can look at your income on the left and see which percentile you are now, and then go back to the beginning and see where you would be before.  As a hint, you would be making a little bit less money regardless of your percentile.

So, my suggestion is that you work out what your disposable income is now, and work out the percentage difference in income from now to 1989, divide that by 52 and you have how much disposable income you would have in 1986, one generation ago.

Then go for a week living off this disposable income, but restrict yourself to only using things that were available in 1986, or doing things that you could do in 1986.  So, everything must be paid in cash or checks.  You have to get your money from inside the bank.  You have to leave your cell phone at home plugged in to the charger, and I don't remember answering machines being around then so you can't check voice mail.  You can use 128k of your computer.  You get your news entirely from network and local news and newspapers.  Before you eat ask yourself if the food would have been available in 1986.  And so on.

On the other hand think about what was available in 1986 that isn't around now.  I must admit nothing springs to mind, but there must be some things.  See if you can find ways to do that stuff if you wish.

Now, this won't be perfect.  Some things have gone up in price and others have gone down.  Most of the things that have gone up are essentials, non-disposable income stuff, so it shouldn't matter much.  Also there are some things that were available in different forms.  You can't get a 1986 car to drive around.  You won't have an old tv, or cassette tapes, so just use your modern stuff.  i think you get the idea.

OK, try that for a week, living like the previous generation, and then from your experience you can decide whether this generation is better off or worse off than the previous one.

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