This is a talk by an independent writer and activist Paul Gilding in which he asserts that we have "reached peak everything." "Peak everything" is taken from the concept of "peak oil", in which it asserted that we have reached the maximum amount of oil from which we can take from the ground at an economically viable cost. As we take oil from the ground we take it from the easiest places first, and the overall amount of oil goes down. Demand for energy, specifically oil, is increasing at a rapid pace and so with increased expense to produce oil, increased demand, and a reduced supply, eventually a global economic system fueled by oil becomes untenable. The result is global economic collapse. This concept is expanded by Gilding to include water resources, agricultural land, the resources of the oceans, and so on. The idea is that we are right at the position where our resources for food, water, and energy are at their maximum level and we are on the verge of collapse. He doesn't say that the collapse of civilization is a certainty, only that to avoid this we need to change right now from the concept of an every expanding economy to a contracting economy that concentrates on supplying the basics.
I think he is absolutely right if you make certain assumptions. The assumptions are that technological changes will not happen fast enough, or reach an adequate scale in time to make a difference. Basically, if we keep doing what we are doing now there will be a series of catastrophes, economic collapse, large scale war, famine, environmental collapse. Even if we make some technological changes that improve efficiency, if they don't happen rapidly enough we will still be doomed, just a bit later. He is absolutely right.
Why then do I disagree with his prediction? Well, I think technology will move quickly enough to avoid these problems, the population will stabilize, and there are actually enough resources to avoid these problems.
Why do I think technology will move quickly enough to avoid these problems? The first is that the most likely population predictions for the Earth suggest a maximum population. Many actually predict a slight decrease after this point. These predictions range from 9 billion to 11 billion. The absolute highest population prediction for the Earth by 2100 is 14 billion, double what it is today. The absolute lowest is 5.5 billion, a substantial reduction. This means, at a maximum we will need to double food production over the next 100 years.
The second is that there is no shortage of materials. In terms of energy the world is very far from a closed system. The sun pumps vast amounts of energy into the Earth's system, 7000 times our present energy consumption. In terms of water the planet is covered in it. In terms of minerals the world is a giant rock. The difficulty in supplying even the most pessimistic population predictions with a modern lifestyle isn't in the scarcity of resources, it is in altering these resources to forms in which they can be used.
The third is the history of predictions and what has actually happened. The most famous scientific doomsday prophet is Thomas Robert Malthus. His theory was simple, population growth is exponential and food production growth is arithmetic. At some point mass starvation will inevitably result. Such maximum populations have repeatedly been predicted, one as recently as the 1970's predicted that 7 billion was the maximum sustainable number. What has actually happened is that the increase in food production has massively outstripped population growth. Since Malthus Europe's population has increased by four times, and its population produces a substantial food surplus. It may surprise you to know that India has a food production surplus (but not anything like a fair distribution).
In terms of energy, wind energy is already competitive with coal energy (where wind can be used). By 2020 the Economist estimates that solar power will be about 10 cents/kilowatt hour to coal's present 7 cents/kilowatt hour, and going down 5-8% a year. There is also all the attempts to produce fuel from plants that I have discussed. As fossil fuels increase in price, alternate fuels reduce their price, thus driving demand for alternate forms of energy.
In terms of water there is already a small de-salinisation device that requires 1kw/hour to produce 1000 gallons of drinking water. With present technology a 10ft x 10ft solar panel produces 1kw/hr. It is certain that these numbers will go down. The deserts of Arabia may be the next fresh water producing area on Earth, the next great global resource?
So, Paul Gilding is exactly right about the terrible things that will happen if we continue to exploit the resources of the planet at our present rate, in largely the same way. The data supports his position, and that position is terrifying in the face of the steps we have not taken to avoid future catastrophe. However, such predictions have been made over and over again by intelligent, informed people. The numbers have been right over and over again. But the actual results have been the opposite of those reasonable predictions. Technology has a 100% record of avoiding worldwide catastrophe since Malthus, and actually things keep getting better. We all know the various methods that could be used in theory to prevent these problems, and there is a worldwide, concerted effort by the largest number of scientists and engineers to ever exist to put theory into practice.
I think it is a wonderful thing that people like Paul Gilding exist. There is great danger in complacency. If we do nothing we are truly doomed. People like him provide fantastic motivation for research, design, individual action, environmental campaigns. I think he is wrong, but in an extremely useful way.
This talk is in direct conflict with the talk I linked to in my previous post. I don't know if anyone watches these videos from this blog. I have not received a comment about them from any viewer of the blog online or in person. As a result I hope that I summarizing these fascinating talks adequately. I will keep promoting these talks from TED, so just get used to it.
No comments:
Post a Comment