Intuition and Decisions.

Over the last couple of years I have talked in this blog about making decisions as my wife and I have been faced with life-changing decisions about where and how to live. During this time I have emphasized rationality and principles in order to make good decisions. I am still fully in the camp of making decisions through the process of rational thought but I want to bring up the other side of the coin, intuition.

To start I must define what I mean by intuition in this case, which is perhaps not quite the dictionary definition. I am defining intuition as thought processes that are not rational. That is that there is not a logical course of thinking that can be followed throughout. Most of our thinking is of this nature, we react emotionally to places, people and things immediately and these reactions come about without a conscious thought process. With everything from looking at art to catching a ball our brains have some method for producing an effect that leads to decisions without us having any idea of how this happens.

To put it more practically, when I think of a cruise there is an immediate emotional reaction in my mind. It is probably different from your reaction, for me I have a feeling of being trapped surrounded by people I don't like. If I think of soccer, or traveling, or chores, emotional results are produced. These are real responses, and in the end they are the most important thing about life. How we feel about our situation is far more important than any other measure of that situation.

So we have the issue here, a tension between a belief in rational decision making and the vital importance of our intuitive emotional responses. This problem is resolved if the intuitive responses are used as a potential measure for outcomes. Our intuition gives us our best internal measure of how we will feel about future situations. If we ask ourselves whether we want to see an action film tonight our immediate emotional response is probably the most valuable tool in determining if that is a good decision.

However, this doesn't mean that intuition is a great tool for making good decisions about complicated subjects. This is because intuition doesn't supply any reference points to you when making a decision. If you just trust your intuition completely on any subject you won't plan for the future, you will avoid hard and unpleasant tasks that might have a good reward, getting up and going to work or school will often be hard. You think about a hut on the beach and it intuitively sounds great, but you don't think about the lack of plumbing in that hut, or whether you will have anyone to talk to, or whether beaches become boring after six months. You think about going for an interview and you think of the awkward questions from strangers, being judged, the strain of new things. You don't think about all the possibilities of meeting a whole set of new people, in a new place, or whether that place will lead to further new places. Intuition just reacts by association.

I think the key is to use intuition, how you feel about something, specifically as information with which to inform a rational decision. This requires one to rationally assess what are the various possibilities in a decision, and even the various components of that decision, and then pay attention to how one feels with regard to each point. Often people either simply just go with their first emotional reaction (I'm not going to go for that job interview because they'll make me feel stupid; I'd love to go abroad to help the poor and be a hero) without considering the alternatives (if I don't go for an interview I'll be stuck here; I'm an accountant and could go help the poor down the street or by sending money) and without getting emotional reactions to all the components of a decision (how would I feel if I got offered the job? do I have to take the job? how much does it matter if they think I'm stupid if my wife thinks I'm smart? or; could I cope without showers? how will I deal with not being fluent in the language? in six months will I feel like a hero or just have a really crappy job?)

I think it rational to understand that the difference between a good decision and a bad decision isn't measured in dollars, or degrees, or in the opinions of others. The difference between a good decision and a bad decision isn't even measured by the final result of the decision. The difference between a good decision and a bad decision is how you felt throughout the path that resulted from the decision in comparison to how you would have felt with a different decision.

I would also say that a good decision can be made that even results in a bad outcome. With decisions you are making predictions about a future that cannot be perfectly known, and when viewing outcomes you are only reviewing your mistakes against other predicted outcomes. In the post I made a little while ago about mistakes I still think that at the time that the decisions were made they were good decisions. All decisions have risks, and sometimes you are betting with the odds in your favor and still lose.

So, my view on making good decisions is that intuition is vital. Angst is not something to be dismissed but something to be studied. It is really important to listen to yourself, to get a really good idea about what it is about a prospective future that makes you nervous, to compare that future with other possible futures. When making these comparisons it is important to imagine both the possible good things in a future but also what might go wrong. In the end what will matter are your intuitions, that is your intuitions rather than the intuitions of others.

In the forecourt of the Temple of Apollo at Delphi, the site of the most famous oracle in the ancient world, were inscribed the words, "Know thyself." When you wish to know the future in order to make a decision the best place to start has always been with yourself. Who are you? What makes you happy? What makes you sad? Why do I have these feelings when I think of things? Once you know how you feel about things you can make a rational, sensible decision but you have to know how you feel about all of the possibilities before that can be so.

So, when making a decision listen to yourself but don't stop there. Stop, listen, imagine, think, and don't worry so much.